Beaten Guineas Favourite, Maybe, is One to Keep Faith in

She might have been beaten 10 lengths into a distant third place, behind her brilliant stable companion, Homecoming Queen, in Sunday’s Group 1 Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, but Aidan O’Brien’s Maybe ran far from a bad race, and is one to keep very much on the right side for the remainder of the season, writes Elliot Slater.

When Ryan Moore on Homecoming Queen blasted out of the stalls and set breathtaking fractions through the first few furlongs, it seemed clear that Homecoming Queen was simply front running in order to provide the previously unbeaten Maybe (13/8f) with a true test, and something to aim at.

However, before the two furlong from home marker, it was clear that nothing short of an earthquake would stop Moore’s filly, who maintained a stunning gallop all the way to the line, to score by nine-lengths from the Starscope. Maybe, who travelled very sweetly for much of the mile contest, finished third under the young Joseph O’Brien.

Expected to come on somewhat, for this first outing of the campaign, having won all five starts, including the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, the Group 2 Keeneland Debutante Stakes at the Curragh, and the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, Maybe has long been the horse most punters wanted to be on for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks.

Despite being well beaten, bookmakers were not over-reacting to her loss, in pushing her out from 4/1 favourite with a bet on racing on Bet Victor, to a general offer of 7/1 in the ante-post market for the Investec Oaks at Epsom, on June 1.

Her third place finish in the 1000 Guineas clearly did not disappoint connections and, if she does indeed improve for her seasonal bow, there could still be plenty of big prizes to pitch for, with the high-class daughter of Galileo. Enjoy betting on horse racing with Bet Victor.

Johnston filly looks ideal Queen Mary candidate

It has been a little while since Mark Johnston has had a really fast juvenile filly, but his Baileys Jubilee certainly appears to be blessed with plenty of pace, and a good attitude to match. She took her tally to two from two when winning in facile fashion at Newmarket’s informative Craven meeting, writes Elliot Slater.
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The 19,000 guineas yearling was early enough to make her racecourse bow, this term, proving far too smart for her nine rivals when scooting home by four lengths from Marvellino on the Kempton Polytrack on April 7, to stamp herself a potentially useful performer.
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With the fourth-placed Lyric Ace subsequently going on to hack up by five lengths at Leicester, a few days later, the form had a relatively solid look to it.
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Faced by a disappointing turnout of just three rivals at HQ in the equestrianart.co.uk Conditions Stakes, the Kempton winner was sent off a long odds-on favourite ahead of the dual previous winner, Dreamy Ciara.
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Punters that took the odds never had an anxious moment, as Silvestre de Sousa had an armchair ride on the daughter of Bahamian Bounty, cruising into the lead over furlong from home, and effortlessly bounding clear to score by an impressive eight lengths from the Charles Hills-trained newcomer Lucky Beggar.
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She might not have beaten a great deal, but Baileys Jubilee was visually impressive; she was subsequently described, by the winning jockey, as “a smart filly”.
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Johnston has only once before won the Queen Mary Stakes, a five furlong Group 2 event run on the opening day of the Royal Ascot fixture, but that was with a certain Attraction, a filly who went on to prove herself a truly outstanding performer, and win both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas.
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No such expectations will be placed on the Middleham handler’s latest potentially decent filly, but she does look just the type to give her handler a big run for his money in the Queen Mary Stakes, in a couple of months time. Baileys Jubilee is likely to prove an equally interesting option in the Ascot betting.

Goodwood Showdown back on as Frankel Receives the ‘all clear’

The whole of the British racing industry breathed a collective sigh of relief, as the news broke that the majestic Frankel has been given the ‘all clear’ to resume training. The report put to bed rumours that the outstanding son of Galileo might not make it onto a racecourse as a four-year-old, writes Elliot Slater.
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An injury to the near-fore of the unbeaten Prince Khaled Abdullah-owned colt sent racing fans into a spin, a situation that became all the more concerning when Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to the prince, revealed that the horse would require a scan to determine the full extent of the injury.
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Happily, Frankel passed the scan with flying colours and has been given the green light to resume training, ahead of a possible seasonal bow in the Group 1 Locking Stakes at Newbury in mid-May, the start of what could prove to be another sensational season for the brilliant miler.
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Doubtless the racecourse executive at Goodwood will also be delighted with the news, as it means that the possible match between Frankel and the brilliant Australian mare, Black Caviar, is now back on, a race for which the sponsors, Qipco, have pledged to add some £700,000 to the original purse for the Group 1 Sussex Stakes.
If the outstanding racehorses from the northern and southern hemispheres go head to head, the contest will become the first £1 million race in British history. Check out the Goodwood odds to see which horse is favoured for the win.
Frankel’s trainer, Sir Henry Cecil, has suggested that he will probably seek to step his star up from a mile to 10 furlongs after the Newbury race.
However, the lure of the Goodwood lucre, together with an undoubted public clamour to see the two equine superstars trade blows, could persuade the popular knight to revert back to eight furlongs with the unbeaten nine-time winner for the clash at the ‘Glorious’ fixture.

Ascot Gold Cup a potential long-term target for progressive Thimaar

Winning the Queen’s Prize Handicap at Kempton over two-miles is a long way from the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup, but there could be no disguising the potential in the winner, Thimaar, who looks a stayer with a big future, writes Elliot Slater.

The John Gosden-trained son of Dynaformer was the overpowering presence in the paddock before the long-standing first significant staying handicap of the Flat season, being a truly enormous horse who looks similar to the late, great stayer, Persian Punch.

Not surprisingly, Gosden feels that the recently gelded four-year-old is only now growing into his strength. He saw the horse battle on tenaciously up the Sunbury straight to hold the equally determined Gulf of Naples by a length (the pair finished well clear).

The famously shrewd Newmarket handler nominated a step into pattern company for his winner, who will be aimed at the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot on May 2.

The Ascot contest has often been used as a stepping-stone to the Gold Cup, with outstanding winners in recent memory, including the dual-scorer, Double Trigger, the aforementioned Persian Punch, and the popular Celeric. Gosden, consequently, is certainly signalling that he believes that Thimaar, (who won off a mark of just 93 at Kempton), is potentially a horse who could take high rank in the staying division in 2012.

Last term, the Hamdan al Maktoum-owned homebred won his maiden at Newmarket in July.

He then failed to cut any ice when pitched in at the deep end in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes won by Sea Moon. Victory at Ascot in September, however, on his first attempt at two miles, showed Gosden’s charge in a new light and he seems certain to stay at the trip and beyond this term.

Thimaar is currently an outsider in the ascot odds, at 14/1. Fame and Glory is the firm favourite for the Gold Cup.

Grey proves popular in Aintree ante-post market

One of the best backed horses in the ante-post market for the John Smith’s Grand National has been the Gordon Elliott-trained Chicago Grey, now generally offered at 16/1 having been previously available across the board at 20s, writes Elliot Slater.

An out-and-out stayer who proved himself on the big stage just over 12 months ago when landing a serious punt to beat the subsequent Scottish Grand National winner Beshabar by over four-lengths to win the four-mile National Hunt Chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, Elliott’s charge has been trained throughout this season specifically with the Aintree marathon in mind, and punters appear to have cottoned on to the fact that connections have meticulously laid him out for a race they landed five years ago with Silver Birch and the Aintree betting shows he has every chance.

Ideally suited by a thorough test of stamina on decent ground, it is looking increasingly likely that the nine-year-old will encounter optimum conditions at the Liverpool track as the unseasonably warm spell continues and all but guarantees that this year’s Grand National will not be run in testing conditions and anyone looking at Grand National tips need to bear this in mind. Indeed, it could well be similar to last year’s contest when Ballabriggs bounced off the quick ground to record one of the fastest times in the long history of the great race.

Chicago Grey does appear to tick most of the required boxes for a possible Grand National winner; his trainer has been there and done that before, the gelding stays ‘longer than the mother-in-law’, the son of Luso is generally a sound jumper, and he also knows how to win when the chips are down, and now an increasing band of people seem to be anticipating that Elliott’s star could become the first grey horse to win the ‘world’s greatest steeplechase’ since Nicholaus Silver in 1961.

Apalachi and Bud fly flag for Grand National teenage brigade

Should they both take their chance on the big day in the forthcoming John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on April 14, both Black Apalachi and Hello Bud will be bidding to become the oldest horse in modern times to win ‘the world’s greatest steeplechase’, writes Elliot Slater.

The last teenager to win the Grand National was the Sergeant Murphy, 100/6 in the Aintree betting, who triumphed in the race way back in 1923, and whilst there have been a small number of veteran horses of that vintage tackling the Grand National in the intervening years, none has come close to repeating the success of the George Blackwell-trained gelding.

At 14-years-old Hello Bud is the senior of the two veterans and has run very well in the contest in previous seasons, finishing fifth to Don’t Push It in the 2010 renewal having made all the running until between the final two fences, then last year racing prominently until a mistake when weakening at the third last saw him fade and eventually pull up. Whilst the current 66/1 shot is an unlikely winner he should give connections another thrilling afternoon and those looking for Grand National tips should remember this.

Black Apalachi is no forlorn hope despite his 13 years of age having been lightly raced in recent years due to a series of minor injuries. Winner of the 2008 Becher Chase, Dessie Hughes’ charge was in front when blundering and unseating his rider at Becher’s second time round in the 2009 race eventually won by Mon Mome. His greatest Aintree moment (so far) was when leading until the final fence in the 2010 contest, only to be run out of it from the elbow by Don’t Push It, but he still put up a great display to finish second.

Given little respite by the handicapper over the years, Black Apalachi still has his supporters and is currently on offer at a general price of 50/1.

Maguire confident Ballabriggs will be in the National first four

He might have 9lbs more on his back than twelve months ago when he galloped to a famous victory over Oscar Time in the John Smith’s Grand National, but winning jockey Jason Maguire believes that Ballabriggs will still finish in the first four in this year’s renewal of ‘the world’s greatest steeplechase’, writes Elliot Slater.

All seems to have gone well with the preparation of last year’s hero who will bid to become the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to win the marathon for two successive years, and trainer Donald McCain, son of Red Rum’s legendary late handler ‘Ginger’ McCain, is also expecting the Trevor Hemmings-owned gelding to give a very good account of himself in a race that looks set to be run under similarly quick conditions to last season’s race in which the son of Presenting bounced off the ground to battle to a brave victory over Sam Waley-Cohen’s Irish-trained mount. Those with 2012 Grand National free bets offer need to bear this in mind.

Ballabriggs’ whole season has been tailored around attempting to win the four-and-a-half-mile contest once again and he was given a long rest after finishing the big race exhausted, only reappearing on racecourse duty at Kelso in early-March where the 11-year-old shaped with a tremendous amount of promise in the totepool.com Premier Chase, hitting the front going to the final race only for lack of an outing to take its toll on the run-in as he faded to finish fourth behind Master of the Hall.

Bookmakers have been fighting shy of McCain’s charge ever since his famous success last term and he is offered at a top price of just 16/1 to write his name in the history books once again. Maguire certainly expects to have another great ride around Aintree on his favourite charge and many once-a-year punters will surely be nailing their colours to the Ballabriggs mast in the hope of McCain family history repeating itself once more.

Double defensive blow for Barca

Barcelona’s hopes of defending their Champions League title have been dealt a double blow ahead of their quarter-final first-leg against AC Milan, with defensive duo Adriano and Eric Abidal both ruled out. Pep Guardiola may have attacking options coming out of his ears, but he certainly isn’t blessed with as many in his defensive ranks and the manager will have to tinker his team to cover the duo’s absences.

With Abidal set to undergo a liver transplant, the Frenchman is effectively ruled out for the rest of the season, robbing Barca of an experienced and influential defender as the season reaches the business end. Fans of Champions League betting odds should remember this.

Joining Abidal on the missing list will be left-back Adriano, who suffered a thigh strain in the 5-3 victory against Granada last week. The Brazilian will now miss the next week of action, which includes this week’s crucial clash against Milan at the San Siro.

Adriano should be back for the return leg in Barcelona, although his absence will now mean Guardiola will have to reshuffle his back-line. Carlos Puyol switched to left-back to cover the injured Adriano during the Granada victory, with Javier Mascherano slipping into centre-back. Those following the Champions League betting should bear this in mind.

While the Argentinean has played in defence a lot this season, it is not his natural position by any means, and will give Milan’s attacking unit plenty of belief they can take the advantage in this tie by grabbing a couple of goals before heading to the Camp Nou for the second leg.

Fingal on target for Aintree return

Philip Hobbs’ tremendously exciting young hurdler Fingal Bay looks set to place his unbeaten record on the line at the Aintree Festival on April 13 when bidding to extend his wining sequence to six in the Grade 1 John Smith’s Sefton Novices’ Hurdle, writes Elliot Slater.

The six-year-old had long been ante-post favourite for both the Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, but was ruled out of bidding for both events after sustaining a hamstring injury just a couple of weeks before the showcase National Hunt meeting. Now, Hobbs reports that the gelded son of King’s Theatre is back in training and working well, and that hopes are very high that he will be fit enough to take his chance at the Liverpool track and bid to make up for much of the disappointment experienced by connections when he missed his big chance at Cheltenham. Those following betting for Grand National need to bear this in mind.

The three mile contest at Aintree is expected to play to the strengths of Hobbs’ rising star, while his absence from Cheltenham could prove a blessing in disguise as Fingal Bay will go into the race a relatively fresh horse against many rivals who would have had a hard race in one of the showpiece staying contests. Even those looking at the Grand National odds should remember this.

After winning a bumper at Exeter on his only start last season Fingal Bay made his hurdling bow in Grade 2 company at Chepstow, winning impressively, then repeating the feat at Cheltenham a few weeks later. His defeat of Nicky Henderson’s Simonsig at Sandown in December looks even better in hindsight, (after the runner-up romped away with the ‘Neptune Hurdle’ at the Cheltenham Festival), whilst his fifth successive victory came in Grade 1 company when keeping on stoutly to repel Ballyrock by a length in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury.

Agony for Nicholls as Niche Market is ruled out of Grand National

Racing’s fickle finger of fate has struck a cruel blow to connections of the popular Niche Market who has been ruled out of a third bid for the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on April 14 after sustaining a minor injury to his leg following a routine exercise canter, writes Elliot Slater.

The former Irish Grand National winner had been in fine form and shaped as though he would be at his very best at Aintree having run a cracker in defeat at Newbury last Saturday when failing by just half-a-length to give 22lbs to Marufo in the three-mile-three-furlong Greatwood Veterans Handicap Chase. On the back of that effort Nicholls had expressed his delight at the way the 11-year-old had performed and was already looking forward to seeing him in action in the Liverpool contest, believing the horse to be in better shape than last year when he ran a tremendous race to finish a gallant fifth of the 40 runners behind Ballabriggs. He would have attracted more than a few ante-post Grand National bets online.

At Aintree in December Niche Market again performed with plenty of credit when encountering ground far more testing than is ideal for him in the listed Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, where he came home second behind mudlark West End Rocker to once again show his ability over the daunting spruce fences of the Grand National course. Nicholls hopes that the injury sustained by the gelded son of Presenting will not prove long-lasting and would like to think that his charge will be back for the 2013 Grand National for one last chance at the big time.

As short as 16/1 in some lists for the big race, the absence of Niche Market means that this year the champion trainer will only have one representative in ‘the world’s greatest steeplechase’, in the shape of the flashy grey Neptune Collonges who is currently available at best odds of 33/1.